Failure-risk alarm on unit 1303

Awaiting decisionFrom alarm AL-1303-riskStarted Pre-computed Benchmark DemoBaseline Unit 1303

Investigation Report

Written by the investigator from the evidence below. Each cited number links to its evidence.

100% Fact-Checked Against Sensor Telemetry

Verified

All 23 cited numbers match their raw telemetry evidence. AI writer revised the report twice for grounding.

Scientific Style & Guardrail Advisories (2)

Observational sensor data reflects statistical correlation rather than proven physical causality:

  • limitations[0]causal wording 'causes': the evidence shows association, not cause. Use association wording instead, for example 'is associated with', 'coincides with', 'contributes most to the model's risk score'.
  • findingsthe verifier model was not available (NoModelAvailableError); claims not checked

Report

Unit 1303 is flagged with a high failure risk of , at or above the false-alarm rate threshold. Sensor S060 contributes most to the model's risk score, with a SHAP value of log-odds, and its sensor-health check reports status ok. Sensors S200, S336 and S472 are on watch status with out-of-reference rates of , and , and they are the largest contributors to the SPE and T² statistics for this unit. The EWMA alarm is active across the units in the FDC window, while the T² and SPE values stay below their control limits and the FDC alarm level is none.

Findings

  1. 1.

    Sensor S060 contributes most to the model's risk score for Unit 1303, with a SHAP value of log-odds.

    Strong evidenceVerifier: not checked
  2. 2.

    Sensors S200, S336 and S472 are on watch status, with , and of readings after the reference outside the reference range respectively.

    Moderate evidenceVerifier: not checked
  3. 3.

    Sensors S200, S336 and S472 are the largest contributors to the SPE and T² statistics for Unit 1303, which coincides with their watch status.

    Moderate evidenceVerifier: not checked
  4. 4.

    The EWMA alarm is active for Unit 1303 and the units in the FDC window, while the T² and SPE values remain below their respective control limits and the FDC alarm level is none.

    Moderate evidenceVerifier: not checked

Proposed actions

  1. 1.

    Check the calibration and physical condition of sensor S060, even though its health status is ok.

    S060 has the largest SHAP contribution of log-odds to the model's risk score for Unit 1303, and its health status is ok with an out-of-reference rate near .

  2. 2.

    Inspect the chambers and process conditions associated with sensors S200, S336 and S472, comparing their readings with the reference medians.

    These sensors are on watch status, with , and of readings after the reference outside the reference range, and they are the largest contributors to the SPE and T² statistics for Unit 1303.

  3. 3.

    Review the recent process history for the units in the FDC window where the EWMA alarm is active.

    The EWMA alarm is active across the whole window of units while the T² and SPE values stay below their control limits, so an engineering check of the recent history is warranted.

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Data & Process Limitations

5 notes

Statistical boundaries and observational constraints established for this run:

Statistical Scope

The evidence shows statistical associations only; it cannot establish that any sensor or process condition causes the failure risk.

Model Attributions

SHAP values describe the model's risk score in log-odds and the T² and SPE contributions describe the control chart, not the physical process.

Data Completeness

16 sensor readings are missing for Unit 1303, so the risk score and contributions rest on incomplete input.

Baseline Window

The PCA reference period used for FDC limits covers 106 units and is flagged as using the shortest candidate stretch according to the reference period evidence.

Statistical Scope

No significant sensor groups were identified (0 of 468 sensors), so no group-level association is supported.

Telemetry & Run Inspector

Examine sensor telemetry cards, agent steps, and model latency traces.

Investigator:DeepSeek-V4.1-FlashWriter:Qwen3.8-Flash-NextWriter:DeepSeek-V4.1-FlashVerifier:GLM-5.3-FlashVerifier:DeepSeek-V4-Flash
9 calls·110,636 tokens·0.01122 pts
  1. Done: Read unit 1303

    Triage, Unit record, 23 ms

  2. Done: Choose the next evidence (1 of 8 tool calls used)

    Plan, 75 s

    Investigator: DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash, 2,701 in, 313 out, 54 reasoning, 0.00047 points, 75 s

  3. Done: Read the SHAP explanation of unit 1303

    Evidence, SHAP explanation, 20 ms

  4. Done: Read the SPE contributions of unit 1303

    Evidence, Control-chart contributions, 15 ms

  5. Done: Read the T² contributions of unit 1303

    Evidence, Control-chart contributions, 14 ms

  6. Done: Read the sensor groups associated with failure

    Evidence, Sensor groups, 15 ms

  7. Done: Choose the next evidence (5 of 8 tool calls used)

    Plan, 147 s

    Investigator: DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash, 10,989 in, 167 out, 28 reasoning, 0.00123 points, 147 s

  8. Done: Read the health of sensors S060, S001, S091, S022, S056, S200, S336, S472

    Evidence, Sensor health, 18 ms

  9. Done: Read FDC points for sequences 1285 to 1324

    Evidence, Control-chart window, 16 ms

  10. Done: Choose the next evidence (7 of 8 tool calls used)

    Plan, 100 s

    Investigator: DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash, 15,319 in, 833 out, 205 reasoning, 0.00090 points, 100 s

  11. Done: Write the report

    Write, 62 s

    Writer: Qwen3.8-Flash-Next, 17,510 in, 1,141 out, 0.00316 points, 62 s

  12. Done: Check numbers, citations, wording and claims

    Verify, 56 ms

  13. Done: Revise the report (revision 1 of 2)

    Write, 305 s

    Writer: Qwen3.8-Flash-Next, 19,018 in, 1,639 out, 0.00128 points, 90 s

    Writer: DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash, 15,407 in, 3,096 out, 1,960 reasoning, 0.00302 points, 216 s

  14. Done: Check numbers, citations, wording and claims

    Verify, 19 ms

  15. Done: Revise the report (revision 2 of 2)

    Write, 88 s

    Writer: Qwen3.8-Flash-Next, 18,858 in, 1,398 out, 0.00114 points, 88 s

  16. Done: Check numbers, citations, wording and claims

    Verify, 180 s

    Verifier: GLM-5.3-Flash, tokens not reported, points not reported, 90 s

    Verifier: DeepSeek-V4-Flash, tokens not reported, points not reported, 90 s

  17. Running: Wait for the engineer's decision

    Decision, running